a good morning to all of you. With the onset of winters there is that initial chill in the air. Reminiscent of markets too where some chill is catching up with investors view of possible returns.
while I am no expert to assess mkt moves and always remain skeptical of what relevance market has in a universe of portfolio specific returns, I was happy to recently make a presentation at the investor carnival.
i chose the topic of simplicity and what I learn from daily life on investing. I felt it best symbolizes human behavior which as per me is the largest edge In a market characterized by excess news inflow. Temperament inflows are not uniform, a clear example of this lies in volatility and interpretation of several events. The latest being the tax cut passed in USA. And much debate on Gujarat elections. Much of this overlooks the continued move of business from unorganized to organized sector, an excellent migration in play.
For those of you who are regular readers of this blog or my Twitter handle, post demonitisation and gst, my view has been to focus largely on organized sector. Most of this includes consumption in any form including by Roti, Kapda and makaan. (Food, clothing and housing)
my presentation focused on why we overlook simplicity and are fascinated by complexity in stock selection, decision making and in providing mkt views.
i also focused on the need to know yourself first as no two set of investors are same and can have same results except by chance which will be outlived with a longer time frame. Stock markets reward diff styles and hence one must attune within to get the best.
i used analogies from movies, cricket, football, baseball, ramayan, Bhagwat Gita, Bible, advertisements, driving to work and hence car and traffic, music and songs etc to show case Behavorial science as an essential element all integrated with simplicity, positivity and self knowledge.
much as I would have liked to, I cannot share the presentation as for that I need several legal clearances.
I do hope however to repeat the same in a knowledge session soon.
meanwhile lots of results have set in. The results are decent and I see some industry captains of repute talk of a pick up in GDP in 3rd and 4th quarter. I also see renewed fii interest (nov inflow was very healthy). Credit Suisse recently increased the weightage an expectation from mid and small caps who have truly been stars of this bull market. As we head out of the initial headwinds of gst and demonitisation and towards a more developing rural market, my outlook remains positive.
Many business models are being viewed as expensive based in pe but ignoring the disruption in place that can catapult to a look up in earnings.
I shall soon enough post further thoughts but nevertheless took this as an opportunity to share some initial thoughts.
Wishing you all a good festive seasons and lots to cheer and share.