Summer wave

There is a cardinal truth on the saying: when you are NOT upto the mark to do something it’s better to defer it rather than to do a shoddy job. I find myself in this situation right now in updating the blog.

There are many reasons for this:
1. The weather is too hot so that even sitting in an ac room I am impacted by the overall excuse of heat. In the last few months having seen several “experts”, doubt the market for reasons ranging from a poor condition of the economy to high interest rates to cad to declining GDP has taken a lot of energy In terms of avoiding their views and spending time and resources in stock picking. While a few fund managers get a thumbs up for their bullishness, the overall global market warming has been a blessing in disguise. In the true spirit of those who only find excuses, I have chosen to laze around and blame the lack of a proper blog update to such disbelievers. Many of the same people are now dawning new clothes and thoughts and calling the markets a bull phase. Not so much to do with their acrobatic skills but to join the wave before they fully drown.

2. I’m exhausted. Not out of passion to find stocks or talk about them but to address mindsets of people who live in the dark ages and believe stock picking is just too easy or a gamble. Rather than understanding markets, behavioral science or fundamental changes or even corporate workings, there seem to be an urge to look through all writings to find one stock idea to buy for instant gratification. Trust me, a chocolate does just this and you might as well enjoy that with lesser to read except the flavor on the wrapper.

3. I still have ideas on interesting buys but being fully invested in a set of stocks that also look good, I don’t find myself in a beauty pageant with a knock off round. Out of sheer respect to some of the ideas that I already own and which I would like to join in the bull market celebrations, I find myself in a loyalty trap.

4. Summer vacations are nearing and a travel is coming up this week itself. My mind thus finds it more interesting to think of what I will do in the break than to break the news of another market view. The movie zindagi na milegi doobara inspires me to believe what the hell. Chill is the way for June.

5. I had a nice Saturday meeting with some investor friends. Market talk seems inconsequential post boarding a bull ride except for those who missed it and now want every ticket left to catch up the fun. Those with an early boarding might as well enjoy their priority seating.

6. The new govt and the RBI policy that came out today seem to be working harder than my quest to explain why the markets remain worthy. When the journey is worthy the destination will appeal.

7. New ideas hit me every now and then. However the market is right now in its own dance. Thus even if I find a new idea and add it to core or non core, the scrips react as if on a 100 m dash race. Which is perfect to make profits or quickly learn from mistakes but totally irrelevant to those who think markets are about tips and if one tip is missed the next should come soon. I find it quite amusing when ppl ask what should we buy or do and I emphasize I’m not an advisor. I share thoughts of my own actions and if you believe in some you could read on them, discover your conviction and play to your own risks. It’s even more amusing when someone misses am opportunity repeatedly and yet wants to know the next.

So as silly as this blog post may sound it speaks the truth of a passionate investor currently happy with his portfolio and with little to say on markets except to remain bullish.

Needless to add, there have been changes to the portfolio. Less in terms of selling but far more in terms of buying new ideas. Scrips sold include orbit exports, itd cementation, international combustion all non core.

Scrips added include some psu stocks like Nbcc and ptc financial services which have both catapulted in the last odd month thus making the disclosure a party pooper.

One micro cap play added has been next media, a radio co with multiple licenses and catering to niche segment of English songs and a youth focus. Now in cash profits and with an investment by BBC with a ridiculous market cap. Thankfully I can tune in to the songs on this channel and sing my way to the bullish market moves.

Some other ideas that have appealed and were added included Ashoka buildcon, oriental carbon, Indo count industries and banco products. More on these on a cool Saturday break.

Long awaited vacation, here I come. Enjoy life.

7 thoughts on “Summer wave

  1. Harshit Jain says:

    loved your tweets and frank discussion on blog…had purchased ptc fin @ 18 and ilfs inv manager @ 14 nearly month back coz of good div…but now ilfs @ 22 can long term investment be considered as there profitability is on decline.Is this rise only coz of dividend play.?Have a great holiday .

  2. Swarn says:

    Hii Bro.

    I am reading your blog from last 2 months …and now i very well know that you disclose Stock at the end of writeup ….But Your write up is so intresting from start ..and I read it full and then check new stock ideas. Once again thanks for new ideas. Sorry bhaiya.

  3. syntharz says:

    Any specific reason for exiting ‘Orbit Exports’? On paper the company still looks better other than growth getting slowed down because of global economy.

  4. Siva says:

    Hi Safir,
    Could you please post the current portfolio running?

  5. Sandy says:

    Hi Safir bro,
    What is the reason for selling Orbit Exports? The results does not look bad at all considering NPM and OPM growth. Can you please provide your reasoning for selling from this scrip?

  6. Sandy says:

    Hi Safir,
    I did not see any reply on my previous message regarding Orbit Exports.
    But it was my good decision to hold on to Orbit Export as it is near 400/- after a years time when you had sold it well below 150/-.
    I had asked to let us know your reasoning behind selling the scrip in spite of better improved margins.

    • safirpicks says:

      Hi. I may have overlooked your response or it may have gone into spam. I did sell orbit at one point as I felt better opportunities were there. As growth continued and prove my selling rationale wrong, I had re-entered. since the past several months keeping sebi guidelines in mind I have not been writing on recent additions or sellings. Thus I may be invested in most scrips I wrote on but in some cases have exited for other scrips. Some of my current top holdings have changed by their sheer price movement and residual impact. Cheers.

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