The financial year ends

Hey guys,

As the financial year draws to its end on 31st march, its time to reflect on what it brought for me in several aspects.

1. The approach of classifying the portfolio between core and trading was a smart one. It allowed me to be bullish at the start of last year and cut all trading positions when the markets rose towards the end of last calendar year.

2. In January this year, I departed from the mid cap mania. As twitted, the sense was large caps were a better bet than mid caps. It seemed so logical when such huge fii inflows on one hand and a continuous retail withdrawal from mid and small caps. This move rewarded us not by giving profits but by insuring that the downside was not so harsh.

3. I ignored more noise than I had done previous years. Sometimes even at the extent of sounding brash or arrogant and sometimes even rude. The point was I just can’t digest hearing half baked or overlooked views. One can never forget, everyone advised but not everyone matters.

4. I learnt once again, markets reward discipline. There is nothing as an expert who can take you through a smooth ride. The year that went saw some supposedly good stocks referred to in several forum falling. Some names include Aarti drugs, bank of baroda, innoventive industries, GRP, cravatex, engineers India, noida toll, bhel, gspl, gic housing, lic housing, smruthi organics etc doing rather bad. I myself went wrong in arshiya by a whooping extent in value terms as also partly towards the year end in Mcx and Astra Zeneca. I remain invested in all three. However I take solace from an overall portfolio return.

5. Diversification was a key insurance. It kept my losses from arshiya, Mcx and Astra low. I have not booked any loss so far so in a sense they are paper losses. Having said that I remembered the axiom, greed and fear. The exposure to the three under performers in aggregate at the end of the year was a net impact of 4 pct.

6. I avoided averaging, so much that I discouraged many of you to add arshiya too. This move and resist paid dividends.

7. I added winners when some losers emerged. The markets are smart in punishing companies and the aberration usually is right. It is only at times when markets go overboard which is when opportune investment sets in. It did today in havells, a scrip that ultimately rewarded20 pct in a single day. The same happened when the markets had so much negative last year and the. So much euphoria later on. At one time in December 2012, mid caps rose relentlessly as if markets had to finish some targets.

8. Usually it does not matter if you time or ill time the markets if you remain committed to good companies and add in moderate doses. Typically wealth creation is not a trading phenomenon and usually requires a long ride in a steady vehicle.

9. I made many friends in the year, including those in the financial markets. Some of them such as ayush, devesh, saurabh, sohail, kiran, prashanth showed good inclination to be like minded. I am sure I missed a few names. Just a tiring day.

10. I also encountered some people who think its impossible to get it wrong and who make endless comments. I must clarify, I am not a trader, don’t know charts, frankly don’t even care for them and don’t possess a mantra to time the market. I don’t have a way to get it right always and may not know about some companies. If you follow me, you should gauge the totality effect.

11. Read always. It will keep you in the stride of things.

12. Warren Buffett has said buy stocks that you can afford to own if the markets are closed. I don’t find such comfort in anything that is complex, based on circumstances beyond a company’s control and based on all the gas that floats.

13. As I end the financial year I remain bullish on stocks. One must understand being bullish on stocks and being bullish on markets is not the same. Markets have their own way and will go up and down. I wish I knew where markets were headed as they are controlled by far more factors than those that control stocks.

14. Even in the current markets, several mid caps and small caps may remain cheap. It is silly in my view to believe that the retail investor will end up coming to buy these companies when he has done everything to avoid markets. Atleast I can expect large caps to do better. Promoters in small and mid caps are not in possession of enough cash to buy their own stocks and those that rise on manipulation in any case should be off radar.

15. I remain bullish on pvt banks, consumption themes which I think will do better than markets although am not be exponential gainers on a year to year basis, select pharma and on a basket of mnc cos. I remain bullish on 2 capital good companies as I have repeatedly twitted and which have outperformed by far.

16. I am working on re orientation of some stocks in my portfolio. Hope to do justice.

Happy investing and I look towards a good financial year.

PS: stocks are a passion. Not because of the money one can make but because they teach me so much. Also history reveals usually periods of underperformance by markets for 5 years or thereabouts are followed by years of outperformance. I’m praying too.

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3 thoughts on “The financial year ends

  1. umesh says:

    wonderful article. shows humility and good sense.

  2. Nasir says:

    Thanks for all your thoughts, Safir. I follow you on twitter as well, not for the scrips, but for the think-through.

  3. Amit Kumra says:

    Sair,

    I am planning to add Orient Bell and Orbit Export…Can I have ur opinion on Orient Bell

    Thanks
    Amit

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