What’s up or headed there

Hi,

Another non event in a budget has passed. I wonder if the govt allows bets to be legally placed on the union budget, with STT and other surcharges, ala a lottery, what would be its collections. The point is, no one ever knows if a budget would be good or bad in advance and yet stupid messages and posts come pre and post budgets. I got invited to a con call 2 days before the budget where someone was trying to poll on best budget bets. Needless to say, I didn’t participate and can assure you no one got anything right. Similarly post budget I read several analsys giving thumbs up or down to stocks, actually playing into the Mylan assumption of the world ending or deciding on stocks on that one fateful budget day. ITC which was had max thumbs down rallied immediately after the budget while there was hardly any major movement on any other co worth a mention. The only exceptions were MCX and FT.

I don’t even consider MCX to be so impacted had it not been for the intent of one of its investors to cash out. The news of their inability to sell and change in intent to sell followed by a stake sale by one of the institutions, brought down the stock. As twitted, I reduced my holding partially as I don’t like uncertainties which are beyond control of companies.

Instead as I wrote about here and also twitted, I added some mnc cos to the portfolio. The reading has payed well with a decent bounce up in some names while my personal feeling is others will soon follow.

At th same time, I exited Fairfield atlas. I like to play for meaningful opportunities and a correction of he stock to 100 bucks ad offered such a play. At 160, the bet is only on small moves. There s a doctrine in investing that I read in a brilliant book called Zurich Axioms by Max Gunther, you must learn to leave one money on th table. Honestly not one person in the world knows when is the perfect time to exit any stock but its good to book some profits particularly when the idea was not taken as a core holding.

Asian Paints, a stock that I recommended at 2700 odd had met wit many comments. The obvious ones were that it is overvalued, is a non obvious stock and is going through a commodity pricing disadvantage. All hamburg. The stock is now almost 100 pct up. Which brings me to anothe belief, I don’t believe in wisdom of crowds when history talks a different story.

Cos with a history of wealth creation and in sectors with moats usually can’t be timed. No matter when u buy them as long as you do add in their worst times too revert to their excellence.

I have not initiated any trading positions still. Frankly I’m not sure where the mkts are headed. It may not even matter. If you like some companies and hey get cheap, do th honors and buy. If the mkts fall, you would have picked the best. That’s all you can do. You could not hav predicted markets beyond and it’s the discipline of investing that eventually will hold you through. Right now, I hav reduced my portfolio somewhat, as I wanted to take a small break with some cash to re look at fresh ideas.

Some of ou may think that makes m bearish or apprehensive. What abt the 96 pct invested? The human mind is so in awe of short term actions that it overlooks th larger picture. If one studies stock market rallies, to need only about 20 days of run in one year to make good returns in the market. There will be days when markets rally very smartly. No one knows when the 20 odd or more days will come. So the best you can do is to wait for them. In between there will be down days and days of no meaningful moves. I welcome both, one for the opportunity to buy cheaper and the other for the time comfort to buy and research.

Happy investing as always. Your feedback is always appreciated.

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4 thoughts on “What’s up or headed there

  1. aditya says:

    sir ,is twitter the only way to get your recommendations ??

  2. Shri says:

    Safir,

    What are your views on Unichem lab?

  3. chaitanya says:

    sir, what’s happening to ivrcl? do you still recommend buying this one?

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