Monthly Archives: January 2013

Orbit exports

1. Credit rating improved last year ICRA revises Orbit Exports’ Long Term rating to LBBB- http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/icra-revises-orbit-exports-long-term-rating-to-lbbb-/428448/ via @bsindia

2. The movement to novelty fabrics is clearly increasing the profitability and reducing dependence on past business. http://www.indiantextilejournal.com/corporate/CUdetails.asp?id=3912

3. The co is undergoing capex given its new thrust, pl remember there was a management change in 2004 from where company essentially picked up

http://www.indiainfoline.com/Research/LeaderSpeak/Mr.-Pankaj-Seth-Managing-Director-Orbit-Exports-Ltd./37228499

4. Per mgt, co is seeking listing on nse.

5. Per bse, co did an allotment very recently

http://www.finalaya.com/472545_ann/Outcome_of_Board_Meeting.aspx

6. Co announced a bonus of 1 for 2 due to improved financials, a factor that means liquidity may have improved

7. Per annual report, capacity of jacquard fabrics has already been doubled

8. Per annual report:

During the year under Report, the Company has developed new products and designs which has enabled the Company to develop new markets and in catering the existing customers. The introduction of new products and designs has helped the Company to add new customers in different geographical regions and segments.

9. Co used to outsource some requirement for fabrics that is since reduced due to the acquisition of 12 jacquard shuttle less looms, source: annual report

Cheers.

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An update based on last post

Hi, I had recommended 18 stocks in my first post on the blog. This is how they fared:

Tv18 up 4.73 pct

Amar raja up by 21.3 pct

Indus ind Down 1.2 pct

Yes bk up 18.3 pct

Eicher 1.73 pct

Mah satyam up 14.2 pct

Icici bk 3.2 pct

Bajaj fin 1.8 pct

Mah and fin 3.82 pct

Fin tech 11.43 pct

Mcx 5.9 pct

Wockhardt 4.33 pct

Den 2.6 pct

Hathway 0.2 pct

Kajaria 1.4 pct

Whirlpool 1.19 pct

In arshiya you wd have lost for sure as it was far beyond my capacity to see the black swan. After all I did see the tree trade zone which is a real asset and saw work on going with VW, Cisco, Bhel, Larsen etc. Interestingly even on glass door, employees were gaga on the company till september 2012. You wd recall my emphasis to diversify given the fact that investing today is quite unlike what it was5 years bk. if you had followed even an equal weight to my model portfolio, your scorecard wd read 15 advances, 1 flat in indusind,1 down in arshiya.

In between I also tweeted my interest in unitech at 32, which gave me an opportunist return of about 22 pct in the last month. You would also have made money in tech m and in my new post on united phosphorous. Tech m moved 12 pct while united moved 6 pct.

Please note that these are one month returns as my first post was around that time. I am not a trader neither claim to be one who knows technicals. I remain invested in scrips to make wealth not income.

Happy investing.

Investment philosophy and update on portfolio

Hi everyone,

We have had an interesting time since I put up my recommendations on valuepickr. Our stocks outperformed the market notwithstanding a huge set back in arshiya international. However I am not too perturbed by that for the reason that:

a) I learn from history or so I believe. On 26th December itself in a posting on is very blog, I wrote how globalization and other black swans have increased investor risk in any co. There is nothing as a free lunch or a fool proof investment in such times and had accordingly advocated the need to be both invested and DIVERSIFIED. Much as I am quite conversant with traditional books on investments recommending a concentrated strategy, we are no longer in a world of calm and certainties and almost any co is subjected to too many black swans.

b) while I continue to hold arshiya, on my twitter I’d I constantly discouraged add ons once the black swan set in. I follow several motos, one of which is my summary statement to be: in terms of greed and fear, let not one stock make or break you. (If it does make you, remember some part of it was random and don’t over credit yourself). History will teach you what happened to facebook when mark wanted to focus on wire edge, or when Larry wanted to sell google to yahoo for 1 million, or when Nokia moved from making green boots to mobiles.

c) if you haven’t leveraged and invest with disclipline, and with some effort to know why you hold in a balanced manner, you will inevitably do well. Ironically, our portfolio went up when with arshiya’s decline as some of the other convictions including amara raja, satyam, tech m, unitech ( a recent addition at 32) to name a few made more than up. You can track my recos on twitter although I am trying my best to increase my participation here and pen down more thoughts.

d) I follow a strategy of holding some cos as core and a very few as trading. My definition of trading is not a technical call, I rather not even dare to do what I don’t understand a clue about. Trading for me are short term mis priced bets which I buy on delivery for atleast a 20 percent if not more upmove. A recent example would be ACG network, a stock recommended by me at 360 rs on a per bonus basis. The stock now trades at 220 or 440 which was precisely the target I wrote about at 360. I use such bets to increase my cash flows and to maximize my returns. Other bets that worked include hdfc warrants recommended multiple times at 60 bucks, then 48. I encased both at almost two to three times the value.

e) my core picks are not in nd outs. I usually remain invested in them till the story remains intact and don’t get blinded by sudden moves. Stocks like Wockhardt, tv18, den, strides acrolab, Atul auto, Mayur etc are examples. I own indusind, hdfc bank etc longer than I can remember.

f) I don’t believe in or follow experts on tv. You guys are far better as your basis is some knowledge or research while tv analysts are all noise. I strongly recommend you to read The SIgnal and the Noise as a recent book that I read.

G) investing is an ever evolving process. My lessons I have learnt are to keep ideas simple, diversify, learn from history, be disciplined and never try to time what otherwise seems convincing.

I continue to wish you guys happy investing and am pleased if I helped anyone do better. I do not want to boast about my absolute returns as no matter what the sky is always above.

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